Christmas Tree Supply At A Record Low, Thanks To The Great Recession

The Christmas tree market is obviously in its peak season at the moment. However, according to multiple news sources, there’s a major tree shortage this year and one of the highest demands for trees the US has ever seen. Typically, the trees that we buy annually are actually 10 to 15 years old by the time they come into our living rooms. If we think back to what the United States looked like a decade ago, we start to get some answers as to why this shortage is happening. The US hit our major recession back in 2008 and 2009. 

According to the National Christmas Tree Association, the two biggest distributors of Christmas trees in America are North Carolina and Oregan, and this year their production numbers are way lower than years previous. While this may seem disheartening, representatives from both states confirmed that the shortage shouldn’t affect anyone’s access to their holiday trees, there just simply isn’t as much as their normally is. Luckily, we know why as well. 

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“We don’t think that there’s going to be any problem. Everybody that wants a real tree is going to get one. The shortage was completely anticipated and is a result of farmers planting fewer trees 10 years ago, in the middle of the Great Recession. Fifteen years ago, we had too many trees available for the demand. In 2008 and 2009, we had the recession, which cut back on sales and made it worse. When tree growers can’t cut the trees, they don’t have the space to plant more.” Doug Hundley, a seasonal spokesperson for the National Christmas Tree Association, told CNN. 

To break this process and explanation down, let’s start with the facts. The Christmas tree that you buy every year is around 10 years old. 10 years ago, the United States hit the Great Recession, leading to less people purchasing trees, and therefore tree farms were overpopulated with trees that continued to grow for another year. To keep those spaces available for the year, tree growers didn’t plant any new ones to save on space and money. Fast forward a decade later, we are now feeling the effects of the lack of ability for farmers to plant new trees to be grown due to overcrowding caused by a lack of purchasing as a result of the recession. Simple right? 

The whole process is basically a decade long ripple effect from the economy crashing in 2008. However, what worries farmers and individuals working for the National Christmas Tree Association, or NCTA, is how much the demand for real Christmas trees is increasing. According to NCTA’s data, in 2018 Americans spent close to $33 million on real Christmas trees and $21 million on artificial ones. For the real trees, that’s a 20% increase from 2017, and price wise the industry noticed consumers paid 4% more than they did in 2017. 

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Hundley discussed how he believes the increased demand stems from more millennial’s starting families and wanting to give their young kids the most authentic and “real” Christmas experience possible, hence the freshly grown and cut tree. The increase in price also roots back to simple supply and demand economics, as previously stated, the demand is high, but supply is increasingly low, so those statistics are on route to be even higher than last year!

While this is seemingly becoming a problem for the Christmas tree industry, there’s still hope, as they’ve faced shortage issues in the past and have solved it through communication and production assistance. Hundley states that there are about 10 major states that are responsible for a majority of the trees distributed throughout the US during the holidays. Specific states tend to focus on one particular type of Christmas tree to grow and distribute based on climate conditions for that state. Balsam, Pine, and Fir are just a few examples of the multitude of types of trees. So when one farm isn’t able to produce as much of a particular type of tree as they’re used to, other states tend to step in and pick up the slack. 

“When North Carolina and Oregon’s plantings were down significantly, there was a lot of Fraser firs growing in Michigan and Wisconsin and even Canada, so they were able to pick up the slack and ship in trees. In this industry, we’re really good at distributing Christmas trees from one place to another,” Hundley said. 

Luckily, the Christmas tree industry seems to always feel the holiday giving spirit, and ensures Americans that no matter what, they will have a happy holiday and a tree next to their fireplace this year.