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Domestic Airfare To Drop 40% In Fall Months After Pricey And Demanding Summer Travel

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After a summer that saw airline prices, staffing shortages, and flight cancellations abound, domestic travelers will get some much-needed relief this fall according to a new report by Hopper, the travel booking data platform.

According to Hopper, domestic airfare will drop to $286 in August, down 25% compared to May’s airfare and over 10% from July’s. Meanwhile, September and October will see drops of about 40% ($238 for a domestic round-trip) from the peak summer months.

Though that estimated price doesn’t match September 2021’s average domestic airfare of $225, it does beat out October of last year’s $240. Hopper noted this year’s August to October drop is abnormally large because of those high prices and earlier-than-usual travel demand peaks.

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International round-trip airfare, meanwhile, will decrease 19% ($179) to an average of $754 in September and October. It’s a massive drop, but unfortunately nowhere close to September ($641) and October ($706) of 2021.

Those prices are also helped by the fact that airlines are attempting to combat the slow season by offering better deals for travelers as a way to “incentivize travelers to plan one more trip before the holiday season,” Hopper explained.

“For travelers who held off on summer trips given the soaring airfares, this lower demand season can mean lower fares and less crowded tourist destinations!”

Among the most trending fall domestic destinations include Seattle ($419 average round-trip), Asheville, North Carolina ($313), Jackson, Wyoming ($460), Hilton Head, South Carolina ($315), and all cities in Hawaii ($500 and under).

As for international destinations, Sydney, Australia ($1,394), Tokyo, Japan ($1,333), Bali, Indonesia ($1,951), and Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam ($1,085) are all trending with flyers looking to explore the world while capitalizing on a deal.

Unfortunately, flyers don’t have much time to take advantage. October and November will see slow rises before airfare takes a gigantic boost to $368 in December, with last-minute holiday bookings sitting at $390.

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Travelers have had to bear the burden of airline shortcomings after the COVID-19 pandemic ravaged the air travel industry. According to the Bureau of Transportation, 88,161 flights have been canceled already this year, over 55,000 more than in 2021.

While the number won’t come close to 2020’s 263,941 canceled flights, it already ranks higher than any yearly total from 2013 to 2019. Toward late July, Hopper reported travel delays had risen to 25% of departures, equaling more than 5,000 flights a day. They aren’t likely to subside anytime soon.

Of course, the high prices experienced just aren’t due to the multitude of airline struggles, but inflation as a whole. Airfare has suffered the second-worst 12-month price change with 27.7%, second behind gasoline (44.0%).

Even with the potential problems, taking advantage of decreased savings before they — and the tourists paying them — begin to ramp up again in the winter could be intriguing if you’ve been itching to add one more pin to your map of America or the world.

travel

Despite Increased Prices, OAG Study Shows Travel Demand Remains Strong

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Despite increasing inflation and prices in nearly every industry, that hasn’t stopped travel-hungry explorers from embracing a world that’s slowly moving away from the COVID-19 pandemic that’s now in its 31st month.

According to a survey from OAG that interviewed more than 1,400 North American travelers, 27% more people are traveling this summer than in the summer of 2021, while nearly 63% of travelers have booked or are planning to book international flights, a number that’s up from 49% in 2021.

The increased demand comes at a time where both airlines and countries are easing restrictions — like no longer requiring pre-departure COVID-19 tests — that have become commonplace within the last two years.

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However, the survey shows some travelers remain wary of embracing remaining protocols. 30% say that COVID-19 protocols have no impact on where they travel, while 22% say those protocols have significant impacts on their bookings.

The nationwide mask mandate that was lifted in April still retains an extremely divisive reaction. 51% believe it should be in place for airplanes and airports, while 49% are happy to be able to walk around mask-free.

In regards to individual ticket prices, most passengers aren’t afraid to break out the wallet in the face of upticks. 79% of respondents said they were just as likely to buy a ticket with a price increase of $50, while 43% said they were just as likely to buy one with a $100 jump.

On the opposite side, only 4% said they were unlikely to buy a ticket with a $50 price increase, while that number was 15% for $100 increases. From $200 to $300 is where travelers start to bulk: only 4% said they’re okay with a price increase of $300, as opposed to 68% who are extremely less likely.

In the last year, the consumer price index for airline tickets rose by 25%, the highest jump since tracking began in 1989. April saw a 18.6% increase alone. The national average fare currently sits at $327.13.

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Of course, COVID-19 and inflation aren’t the only concerns passengers have to worry about. Airlines have also been affected due to pilot and staff shortages, leading to the cancellation of thousands of flights throughout the packed summer months.

That kind of effect was obvious during this past Fourth of July weekend, where more than 4,900 flight delays and 500 cancellations were reported the evening of July 1. Overall, the holiday weekend saw 1,435 flights cancelled from July 1 to July 4, according to FlightAware. Additionally, one in five flights experienced disruptions.

Even with mishaps like that, 54% of respondents said staffing shortages have little to no affect on their travel effect, while only 34% said staffing shortages negatively affect their travel experience.

So why is the demand sky-high right now despite all the potential barriers and negatives? Some experts have called it a case of “revenge travel.” While not an official term, it’s the idea that because of the pandemic, travelers are wanting to make up for lost time and moments.

“It’s a proclamation of “Screw you, COVID, I can travel and I’m going to,” CIRE Travel owner Eric Hrubant told NPR. Hrubant advised that those who do want to travel might be better off waiting until the fall, where they can see lower prices, less crowds, and a wider selection of possible destinations to visit.