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US Home Prices Decline at Fastest Pace Since 2008 Financial Crisis

We are in the middle of the most significant two-month drop in home prices since shortly after the collapse of the Lehman Brothers in September 2008. Prices have been declining at the fastest pace since the Great Recession, prompting some experts to believe we are entering a housing market correction.

U.S. Consumer Confidence Slips In May Among Inflation

On Tuesday, The Conference Board reported that its consumer confidence index decreased slightly in May to 106.4, a score that — while still a strong number — is down from 108.6 in April (which saw a small increase itself from March).

Meanwhile, the group’s present situation index, which is based on consumers’ assessments of current business and labor market conditions, declined from 152.9 to 149.6. The expectations index, based on consumers short-term outlooks for income, business, and labor, decreased from 79.0 to 77.5.

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“The decline in the present situation index was driven solely by a perceived softening in labor market conditions,” Lynn Franco, The Conference Board’s senior director of economic indicators, said. “By contrast, views of current business conditions — which tend to move ahead of trends in jobs — improved. Overall, the present situation index remains at strong levels, suggesting growth did not contract further in Q2.”

“That said, with the expectations index weakening further, consumers also do not foresee the economy picking up steam in the months ahead. They do expect labor market conditions to remain relatively strong, which should continue to support confidence in the short run.”

The dip in confidence comes after April saw an 8.3% year-over-year rise, which was down from March’s 8.5% year-over-year hike. Also not helping is the producer price index, which saw a jump of 6.9% in April. That’s down from March’s 7.1%, but up from February’s 6.7%.

Even with the Federal Reserve’s attempts to fight inflation by raising interests rates by 0.5% to 1.00%, the soaring prices will likely continue to be a burden to Americans over the coming summer months. One area consumers are being tortured in are rising gas prices, which now sit at a national average of $4.6 per gallon.

The labor market continues to remain a question mark for consumers even after employers added 428,000 jobs in April, keeping the unemployment rate at a pandemic-low 3.6%. Those numbers helped the country keep a 12-month streak of 400,000 or more jobs added.

However, that steady improvement may be misleading. Politico noted that data released by the Ludwig Institute suggests the “true rate of unemployment” (or TRU) is higher than national or local figures show and accounted for 23.1% of the labor force in April.

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“We think it misleads the American people to say, ‘Oh, we’ve got 3.6 percent of America that is unemployed, ergo, a huge percent of the population is employed,’ when in fact they can’t make above a poverty wage,” Ludwig told Politico.

Additionally, Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell has previously called the labor market “unsustainably hot,” and — in an interview with Marketplace — explained that the demand of labor is inconsistent with low inflation. “What we need to do is we need to get demand down, give supply a chance to recover and get those to align,” he said.

President Joe Biden met with Powell Tuesday, saying afterwards that inflation has become his top domestic priority. “My plan to address inflation starts with the simple proposition: Respect the Fed, respect the Fed’s independence, which I have done and will continue to do,” Biden said.

How Biden deals with inflation could significantly impact his odds of possessing a second term in two years. According to FiveThirtyEight, the President currently sits at a 54.0% disapproval rating (up from 52.4% May 1), with just 40.8% approving of his work. Biden has pointed to the Ukraine invasion and supply chain issues as culprits of inflation woes.

Federal Reserve

Federal Reserve Raises Interest Rates By 0.5% In Largest Move Since 2000

On Wednesday, the Federal Reserve raised short-term interest rates by 0.5% to 1.00%, marking the largest increase in over two decades as it attempts to fight the ever-increasing inflation that has continued to cause financial burdens for Americans.

Since 2000, the Fed has only raised interest rates in increments of 0.25%. “Inflation remains elevated, reflecting supply and demand imbalances related to the pandemic, higher energy prices, and broader price pressures,” the Fed said in a FOMC statement. “The Committee is highly attentive to inflation risks.”

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In March, inflation rates rose to 8.5%, up 0.6% from February’s 7.9% and 1.5% from December’s 7%. It’s now the highest inflation rate the country has seen since the 1980s, though forecasts project a downturn over the coming months. The increased interest rates will take time to lower the inflation, however.

The Fed explained it’s monitoring the situation of the 10-week-old Russian invasion of Ukraine — citing “tremendous human and economic hardship” — among other global issues that have essentially stalled production and sent the supply chain spiraling.

“The invasion and related events are creating additional upward pressure on inflation and are likely to weigh on economic activity. In addition, COVID-related lockdowns in China are likely to exacerbate supply chain disruptions.”

As for what this all means for the average citizen, borrowing will become more expensive. Higher interests rates will occur for mortgages, student debt, car loans, credit cards, and business loans for both small and large companies.

Higher mortgage rates are a particularly hard pill to swallow for those in the already difficult-to-navigate real estate market, as home prices alone have shot up during the COVID-19 pandemic. In the first quarter of 2021, the average home sold for $507,800.

Currently, a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate sits at over 5%, up from 3.10% in early-December and 4.16% in mid-March. The Fed will now discuss increased interest rates between 0.75% to 1.00% in June and July, while some officials have advocated for raising rates to 2.5% by the end of 2022.

Following the Fed’s announcement, the Dow Jones Industrial Average spiked up 900 points to 34,064 before dropping 1,000 points Thursday morning, or 2.9%. The S&P 500 saw a 3.3% drop, while the Nasdaq Composite fell 4.6%. Similarly, Google’s parent company, Alphabet, had a 5.3% slide.

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Speaking Wednesday, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell attempted to relay that the bank understands the financial hardship Americans are going through, and explained the raising interests rates were done in order to relief that inflation tension. “Inflation is much too high, and we understand the hardship it is causing,” Powell said.

Powell also emphasized his belief that the economy can withstand the higher rates, with unemployment rates dropping by 0.2% from February to March and total job openings rate at 7.1%, a year-over-year increase of 1.6%. “Nothing about it says it’s close to or vulnerable to a recession,” he said.

President Joe Biden has previously supported the Fed’s monetary decisions. “The Federal Reserve provided extraordinary support during the crisis for the previous year and a half,” he said back in January. “Given the strength of our economy and pace of recent price increases, it’s appropriate — as Fed Chairman Powell has indicated — to recalibrate the support that is now necessary.”

The actions aren’t without concerns, however. As the Associated Press notes, many have criticized the Fed for taking too long to tackle inflation, leading to doubt from analysts that a recession can ultimately be avoided.