Polymarket Trader’s Near-Perfect Iran Bets Draw Scrutiny
A trader on the prediction market platform Polymarket has drawn scrutiny after racking up nearly $1 million in profits since 2024 by consistently betting on geopolitical events, often just hours before they unfolded.
An analysis shared with CNN by blockchain analytics firm Bubblemaps found the bettor correctly predicted a series of U.S. and Israeli military actions involving Iran, including strikes in October 2024, U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities in June 2025, and a joint U.S.-Israeli operation earlier this year. In many cases, the wagers were placed shortly before the operations were publicly known.
The trader’s success rate was unusually high. According to the analysis, they won 83% of their bets overall and 93% of wagers exceeding $10,000, netting approximately $967,000. Such performance has raised concerns among experts about whether non-public information may have played a role.
“It sure seems like this person either has incredible luck or was insider trading,” said Todd Phillips, a finance professor at Georgia State University and former advisor to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). “Having win rates in the 80% to 90% range is just too good to be true. I look at this, and I think something fishy is going on.”
Bubblemaps CEO Nick Vaiman echoed that skepticism, pointing to the trader’s timing and consistency.
“All of this is strong signaling of insider activity, based on the amount they made, the markets they bet on, the timing of their trades, the success rates of these trades, and the fact that they are connected on-chain. This is pretty suspicious in my book.”
Still, there is no definitive evidence that the trader had insider access. The accounts involved are anonymous and cannot be directly linked to any individual. Some of the bets were also placed days or weeks in advance, which experts say is less suggestive of insider knowledge.
The activity highlights broader concerns about prediction markets, where users can wager on outcomes ranging from elections to armed conflicts. While such platforms have gained popularity, they have also sparked debate over whether they can be exploited by those with privileged information.
Although the CFTC approved the company to offer services to U.S. users last year, its domestic platform is not yet fully operational. Experts note that Americans can still access the offshore site using VPNs.
That approval followed the Trump administration’s decision to close a Biden-era investigation into whether Polymarket had improperly allowed U.S. users on its offshore platform.
Amid rising scrutiny, Polymarket announced new rules this week to clarify what constitutes prohibited insider trading. The updated policy bans trades based on confidential information, tips from individuals obligated to keep information private, and participation by those in positions of authority who could influence event outcomes.
“These rule enhancements make our expectations abundantly clear for every participant across both platforms and highlight the compliance infrastructure we have already built.”
Other platforms are taking similar steps. Kalshi, a U.S.-regulated prediction market, introduced additional safeguards, including enhanced screening for athletes and politicians. The company, which also prohibits insider trading, operates fully within U.S. regulatory oversight.
The issue has gained urgency as geopolitical tensions, particularly involving Iran, have driven increased betting activity. Lawmakers and watchdog groups have raised alarms about so-called “death markets,” where users speculate on events such as the fate of political leaders.
There have already been legal consequences abroad. Israeli authorities recently indicted two individuals, including a military reservist, for allegedly using classified information to place bets on Polymarket during last year’s conflict with Iran.
The situation has prompted bipartisan efforts in Washington to tighten regulations. Proposed legislation would bar federal officials from using non-public information to trade on prediction platforms. Meanwhile, the CFTC has issued guidance reminding operators that insider trading is illegal and subject to enforcement.
Still, defining insider trading in these markets remains complex. In the U.S., the legal standard typically requires that the trader has a duty to keep certain information confidential.
Jason Trost, CEO of the UK-based prediction platform Smarkets, noted that not all informational advantages qualify as insider activity. Some data—such as satellite imagery or overheard conversations—may be difficult to obtain but not legally restricted.
“The more of that information that gets into the marketplace, all the better,” Trost said. “But if there’s something you know about that is about to happen, and it is materially non-public information, then that, I think, is the red line.”
Even so, the pattern of highly accurate, well-timed bets has fueled ongoing concern. Analysts say similar activity has appeared around other major geopolitical developments, suggesting this may not be an isolated case but part of a broader trend shaping the future of prediction markets.
Moumita Basuroychowdhury is a Contributing Reporter at The National Digest. After earning an economics degree at Cornell University, she moved to NYC to pursue her MFA in creative writing. She enjoys reporting on science, business and culture news. You can reach her at moumita.b@thenationaldigest.com.