Extreme Weather Events Will Become More Frequent And Intense In The Next 20 Years, According To New Research
About three quarters of the world’s population will experience strong and rapid changes in extreme temperatures and weather events within the next 20 years unless greenhouse gas emissions decline dramatically, according to a new study led by scientists from CICERO Center for International Climate Research that was also supported by the University of Reading.
The research revealed that 20% of the world’s population could potentially experience extreme weather events if emissions are cut as laid out by the Paris Agreement. If limited action is taken and those emissions don’t decline, 70% of the world will experience major climate events.
The paper was published in the journal Nature Geoscience, and laid out how climate change will combine with natural weather patterns to create decade-long periods of quick changes in extreme temperatures and rainfall.
Dr. Carley Iles, lead author of the research at CICERO, said: “We focus on regional changes, due to their increased relevance to the experience of people and ecosystems compared with the global mean, and identify regions projected to experience substantial changes in rates of one or more extreme event indices over the coming decades.”
The study utilized large climate model simulations to show that major parts of the tropics and subtropics are expected to experience changes in temperature and rainfall over the next 20 years. The parts of the world studied contain about 70% of the current world population.
Rapid changes in the environment increase the chances of unpredictable weather conditions and extreme events directly caused by climate change.
“For example, heat waves may cause heat stress and excess mortality of both people and livestock, stress to ecosystems, reduced agricultural yields, difficulties in cooling power plants, and transport disruption,” The University of Reading wrote.
Dr. Laura Wilcox, co-author at the University of Reading, said, “We also find that rapid clean-up of air pollution, mostly over Asia, leads to accelerated co-located increases in warm extremes and influences the Asian summer monsoons.”
“While cleaning the air is critical for health reasons, air pollution has also masked some of the effects of global warming. Now, the necessary cleanup may combine with global warming and give very strong changes in extreme conditions over the coming decades.”
“In the best case, we calculate that rapid changes will affect 1.5 billion people. The only way to deal with this is to prepare for a situation with a much higher likelihood of unprecedented extreme events, already in the next one to two decades,” says Dr. Bjørn H. Samset at CICERO Center for International Climate Research.
Eric Mastrota is a Contributing Editor at The National Digest based in New York. A graduate of SUNY New Paltz, he reports on world news, culture, and lifestyle. You can reach him at eric.mastrota@thenationaldigest.com.
