Dementia Cases in the U.S. Will Double by 2060, New Study Predicts
Cases of dementia in the United States are projected to double in the next 30 years, according to a new study published in the journal Natural Medicine. The study’s results project annual dementia cases will surge from 500,000 in 2020 to nearly 1 million by 2060.
The study was carried out by researchers from Johns Hopkins University, Mayo Clinic and New York University. It focused on three decades worth of data from more than 15,000 people, estimating their lifetime risk of developing dementia between the ages of 55 and 95.
Research indicates that individuals over the age of 55 face a 42% risk of developing dementia, a figure that more than doubles the risk reported in previous studies. After reaching the age of 75, the lifetime risk rises to over 50%. The figures are partially due to an aging U.S. population and longer lifespans.
Dr. Josef Coresh, a study senior investigator, epidemiologist and founding director of the Optimal Aging Institute at NYU Langone, said in a press release that the study results forecast a “dramatic rise in the burden from dementia in the United States over the coming decades, with one in two Americans expected to experience cognitive difficulties after age 55.”
“The pending population boom in dementia cases poses significant challenges for health policymakers in particular, who must refocus their efforts on strategies to minimize the severity of dementia cases, as well as plans to provide more healthcare services for those with dementia.”
Research indicates that women, Black Americans, and individuals with the APOE4 gene face a heightened risk of developing Alzheimer’s disease. Women have a higher risk because they typically have longer lifespans.
“Their risk of getting dementia by the time their 95th birthday would arrive is higher because more of them will make it closer to their 95th birthday.”
The authors of the study projected that the number of cases among White Americans is set to nearly double, whereas the figures for Black Americans could see a staggering tripling.
“These results highlight the urgent need for policies that enhance healthy aging, with a focus on health equity. The lifetime risk of dementia can inform public health planning and improve patient engagement in prevention.”
Dr. Alexa Beiser, a professor of biostatistics at Boston University School of Public Health, who was not affiliated with the new study but reviewed it independently for the journal, told The New York Times, “One needs to see the huge magnitude of the issue. It’s enormous, and it’s not equally distributed among people,” Dr. Beiser said.
Dementia encompasses a range of symptoms characterized by a decline in cognitive functions, such as memory loss and difficulties with concentration. These issues can profoundly impact daily life and an individual’s ability to function independently.
Currently, there is no designated test to diagnose dementia in individuals. Doctors diagnose Alzheimer’s and various forms of dementia through a meticulous process that includes a thorough medical history, physical examination, laboratory tests, and the monitoring of changes in cognition and daily functioning.
Alzheimer’s disease, Huntington’s disease, Lewy body dementia, frontotemporal dementia and vascular dementia can all be grouped under dementia. However, Alzheimer’s is the most common disease that causes dementia.
According to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, approximately 10% of individuals aged 65 and older in the United States have dementia.
Aging stands out as the primary contributor to the onset of dementia; however, various genetic predispositions, lifestyle choices, and underlying health conditions can significantly increase this risk. These include diabetes, hypertension, obesity, an unhealthy diet, insufficient exercise, and poor mental health.
The study underscores the importance of preventative measures to slow the onset of dementia. The recommendations of the authors and other experts include improving cardiovascular health through medication and lifestyle changes, preventing and treating strokes, and encouraging people to wear hearing aids, which allow people to be more socially and cognitively engaged.
Moumita Basuroychowdhury is a Contributing Reporter at The National Digest. After earning an economics degree at Cornell University, she moved to NYC to pursue her MFA in creative writing. She enjoys reporting on science, business and culture news. You can reach her at moumita.b@thenationaldigest.com.