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International Travel To The US Has Been On The Decline, And Will Continue

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The decline in international tourism to the US could persist, and likely increase, in the future, according to travel analysts. Major travel destinations around the nation like Las Vegas and Los Angeles, have reported hosting fewer foreign visitors this summer, according to the Associated Press. 

Experts and local travel officials have stated that this decline first began in February after President Donald Trump returned to the White House. Specifically, his tariffs, immigration crackdowns, and repeated claims that the US will acquire Canada and Greenland, has made a lot of international travelers feel alienated and less willing to come to the US. 

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Patrick Kaler, CEO of the local tourism organization Visit Buffalo Niagara, created a marketing campaign to greet Canadian drivers with a billboard that states “Buffalo Loves Canada.” 

“To see the traffic drop off so significantly, especially because of rhetoric that can be changed, is so disheartening,” Kaler said.

Earlier in the year, the World Travel & Tourism Council projected that the US would be the only nation, out of the 184 they studied, where foreign visitor spending would decline in 2025. 

“[These findings] are a clear indicator that the global appeal of the US is slipping,” the global industry association stated.

“The world’s biggest travel and tourism economy is heading in the wrong direction. While other nations are rolling out the welcome mat, the U.S. government is putting up the ‘closed’ sign,” said Julia Simpson, the council’s president and CEO.

Tourism Economics, a travel research firm, predicted this month that the US will see 8.2% fewer international arrivals by the end of 2025, which is a significant drop in the number of foreign visitors to the US before the Covid-19 pandemic. 

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“The sentiment drag has proven to be severe, airline bookings indicate the sharp inbound travel slowdown” of the summer that will likely persist, the firm noted. 

Deborah Friedland, managing director at the financial services firm Eisner Advisory Group, said “the U.S. travel industry faced multiple headwinds — rising travel costs, political uncertainty and ongoing geopolitical tensions.”

Since returning to office, Trump has revived his travel ban that mainly targets African and Middle Eastern countries, and has tightened the rules around visa approvals while increasing mass immigration raids. 

His push for tariffs on foreign goods have also made citizens in multiple countries feel unwanted in the US. 

“Perception is reality,” Friedland said. 

Washington D.C. has also noticed an impact on the travel industry. Local tourism officials projected a 5.1% decrease in international visitors for the year, and marketing organization Destination DC said just last week they planned to “counter negative rhetoric” regarding the city. 

US government data confirmed a general decrease in international arrivals during the first seven months of the year. The number of foreign visitors, excluding Mexico and Canada, have decreased by 3 million (1.6%) compared to the same period last year, according to the National Travel and Tourism Office.

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China’s Population Decreases For Third Year In A Row 

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China’s population decreased in 2024 for the third year in a row, the government said recently. At the end of last year, China’s population stood at 1.408 billion, this is a 1.39 million decrease from 2023.  

These figures also follow worldwide population trends that have been especially present in East Asia, specifically in Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, and other nations. China joined countries like Japan and other Eastern European countries three years ago when it comes to seeing their populations decline. 

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Some of the general reasoning behind these declines has to do with the rising costs of living, which are pushing younger people away from marriage and having kids, and instead opting for pursuing higher education and careers. 

China also doesn’t allow for a lot of immigration. The nation has been known as the most populated country in the world. Historically this is partially due to the end of World War II and the rise of the Communist Party in 1949. Within three decades China saw their population double. 

As the population began to rapidly increase, Communist leaders began to implement a “one child policy” among families to maintain resources.

While the policy has never been made into law, women have had to apply to have a second child and individuals who haven’t could’ve faced forced abortions and birth control procedures, as well as massive fines and the possibility of their child not having an identification number. Without an identification number, the child is considered non-citizens, according to reports from NPR.

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In rural China, male children are preferred, and women had to present evidence of their own menstruation. With abortion being legal and available, the government worked to motivate pregnant women to abort their baby if it was a female. 

The result is a major inequality in the amount of men versus the amount of women in China’s population. NPR reported that there are as many as millions of more boys for every 100 girls born. The recent report from Beijing showed an imbalance of about 104 men to every 100 women, however, independent census groups think that ratio is much higher. 

Now, India has just surpassed China as the most populous nation in the world. With an aging population and decrease in births and marriages, the trends make sense. 

More than one-fifth of China’s population is 60 or older, specifically, about 310.3 million people. For reference, the US has about only 30 million more people than that demographic. By 2035, reports suggest that the older population will account for more than 30% of the total population.

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Tesla’s Value Declines By $60 Billion After Investors Were Left Underwhelmed By Company’s ‘Cybercab’

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Last week, Tesla shares fell by about 9%, $60 billion from the company’s value, after the company unveiled their much anticipated “robotaxi,” which failed to peak investors interests. 

The shares dropped to $217 following the announcement event in Hollywood where chief executive Elon Musk revealed his highly anticipated driverless taxi vehicle. According to reports, the stock price is down about 12% year-to-date. 

At the event, Musk stated that Tesla will officially begin building their “Cybercab” by 2026 and will have a price of less than $30,000. He claimed that the vehicle will be able to transport up to 20 people around town independently and its technology would reshape cities.

“All transport will be fully autonomous within 50 years,” Musk tweeted.

Tech analysts and experts stated that the event, however, lacked a lot of detail and didn’t go over any specifics regarding other Tesla products and projects. Critics also stated that Musk is known for making major proclamations regarding future Tesla endeavors and the timeline in which they’re supposed to come out. Sometimes the products don’t come out at all.  

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“Investors we spoke to at the event thought the event was light of real numbers and timelines,” Tom Narayan, an analyst at Royal Bank of Canada, said to investors according to the Guardian. He also emphasized how the event lacked detail. 

“These typically come at Tesla events. This one seemed focused on branding and marketing Tesla’s vision, rather than giving concrete numbers for us to model out. As such, we would expect shares to trade lower.”

Narayan also said that “some investors were hoping for a teaser about a lower-priced vehicle, with pedals and steering wheel, that would launch next year. However, none was forthcoming.”

Garrett Nelson, an analyst at investment research firm CFRA, said he was “disappointed by the Cybercab reveal and a lack of detail about a cheaper vehicle.”

“The event raised a lot of questions, was surprisingly brief, and was more of a controlled demonstration than a presentation. 

We were disappointed by the lack of detail regarding [Tesla’s] near-term product roadmap, eg, the more affordable model and Roadster, both of which Musk said would achieve first production in 2025 on his last conference call.”

New Home Sales In The US Fell 6% Last Month As Construction Costs Continue To Rise 

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The US experienced a 6% fall in home sales throughout the month of April, partially due to the fact that construction and other additional costs that come with buying a home have been on the rise as the pandemic continues. 

The US Census Bureau reported on Tuesday that new residential sales occurred at a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 863,000 in April. They also reported that the previously published figures for March sales should be decreased to 917,000. This time last year during the pandemic, new home sales were surprisingly up by 48% due to an increase in individuals leaving the city to have more space in the suburbs. 

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The Bureau also noted that new home sales reports are prone to change within the first month of release as well, and they predict that the new home sales between March and April could be 11.2% larger or smaller than what it is currently. 

Sales rates in every part of the country have decreased except for the West, where sales grew by 3.9%; the largest decline occurred in the Northeast with a nearly 14% drop. The inventory of new homes available for sale at the end of April was also significantly lower from March. 

Pantheon Macroeconomics chief economist Ian Shepherdson had “projected a larger decline than what occurred, because of trends in mortgage application data. Over time, though — and usually not much time — new home sales gravitate to the pace implied by the trend in mortgage applications. So, absent any other reliable near-time indicators of the pace of sales, we have to expect a steep drop in April.”

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Experts believe that the decline in mortgage demand is linked to an increase in property costs, as well as construction and renovation costs. Affordability is obviously a top priority for every working class American right now as we navigate this grey area of the pandemic where half of people are receiving vaccines while the other is refusing. 

“The market for new homes is seeing price pressures not just due to the high demand for housing but also because of rising material costs that are driving construction expenses higher.”

“Builders are reluctant to sign sales contracts for houses they haven’t broken ground on because of the possibility that costs will continue to rise, nibbling into profits. So some builders are waiting at least until houses are framed before accepting buyers’ offers. This limits the number of home sales, even as demand remains strong,” ,” said Holden Lewis, housing and mortgage expert at personal-finance website NerdWallet. “

“The market for new homes has benefitted from a near-record low supply of available resale properties, which is sending prices skyward,” said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.

Theatre Stage

Broadway Experiencing Biggest Ticket Sales Slump In Three Years

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Now that the holidays are officially over, a general sense of frugalness is in the air. As consumerism continues to increase every holiday season, so does the amount we try to save once the season is complete. Retailers, restaurants, and any other industry that would require the spending of money takes the hit every year, but depending on how much they made during the holidays themselves, they’re normally fine. 

An industry that’s taking the hit particularly hard this year is Broadway. Unless gifted tickets, people tend to stay away from purchasing big ticket items, literally, when they’re trying to save up. This year, it’s been reported that the industry is witnessing a 28% decrease in overall sales with the new year/holiday season. That’s still an estimated $31 million coming into the box office, however, it marks a three-year low for the industry as a whole. 

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Along with the loss of money, theater attendance is also down 6% compared to last year’s stats, however, Broadway had three more active shows this time last January. Over this past weekend (1/10/20), Broadway also closed down three shows but all of them were planned closings as the shows themselves had planned limited runs. 

“While 18 shows grossed over $1 million, most only made it over that threshold by a hair. Only five cracked $1.5 million – down from ten last week. Bucking the downward trend were traditional, non-musical plays, which performed markedly better than they did over the holiday frame. This pattern isn’t unusual – most holiday buyers spend on song-and-dance spectacles – but it was still good news to their producers,” (Forbes).

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2019 in general was the opposite of successful for Broadway; as an industry they grossed $67 million less than what they earned in 2018. The reasoning behind why Broadway takes such a massive financial hit when certain shows fail has a lot to do with real estate costs. As we all know, New York City is one of the most expensive cities in the US to live in, and for businesses, the cost of theater space is just as high. So when a show “flops” in terms of ticket sales and theater attendance, the industry itself loses the most money in real estate and production investments.

When shows continue to remain active into the new year, it typically means that the industry is making an influx of money back on the investment, so they remain open. This year, only four plays remain from 2019’s playbill;  Hadestown, Ain’t Too Proud, To Kill a Mockingbird, and Beetlejuice. 

When 2019 began, Broadway saw seven plays get carried into the new year, three of which are listed above and continue to sell. In total, the number of show closings within 2019 has caused the industry to lose about $100 million in investments and real estate costs. 

“Booking schedules define [a lot] of the [financial] landscape, and those are affected more by individual productions than market trends. This season, several big musical houses have remained empty, leaving big money on the table. That, and the fact that The Palace [a major Broadway Theater] is under renovation accounts for a whole percentage point of lost sales. However, every show is different, and comparing one season to the next is always tricky,” Brian Mahoney, Vice President of ticket sales for the Shubert Organization.

Real Estate Meeting

Real Estate Industry In Need Of Affordable Housing Solutions

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The real estate industry is like the stock market, one day you’re way up, and the next you’re crashing. The housing market always fluctuates with the economy and today is no different. Due to a slew of combined issues, the real estate industry is suffering to find and maintain affordable housing in the US for clients looking to live in metropolitan areas. Phoenix, Arizona is seeing some of the worst of it currently, according to Chamber Business News (CBN).  A combination of lack of labor, high demand for properties to be built fast, and rising development costs is taking a hit on the entire industry, (CBN).

“I refer to it as the perfect storm. It isn’t just building and labor costs, but building products have gone up, too, and, today, the most severe labor shortage is for lot development, the folks that put in the sewer, concrete curbs and gutters, dry utilities, everything underneath the house, and the infrastructure to get to and from the home site,”  said Jim Belfiore, President of the firm Belfiore Real Estate Consulting in Phoenix. 

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Homeowners themselves are trying to take some of the heat off the companies they work with by providing additional costs, but even the real estate agents working with them know that what they’re paying additionally is way above what’s considered “normal”. The lack of labor is one of the biggest hurdles the industry is trying to get past, especially in Phoenix. According to CBN, construction costs overall have increased almost 40% over the past four years, give or take based on the specific residential market of course. Since a majority of the market’s clients can’t keep up with the rising costs, more labor workers are left without jobs. 

The labor shortage is affecting the whole country, but Arizona is especially feeling the negative effects. With an increase in anti-immigration laws and stricter policies regarding immigrant workers, many individuals have fled the state to avoid any threat of deportation. 

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“The labor shortage has really affected the schedule that home builders can deliver on because of a lack of contractors. There are projects that are going out to bid and getting zero bidders responding with proposals. It’s not unusual once you find bidders who can’t meet their schedule,” said Ron Hilgart, managing principal of a Phoenix construction management firm, to CBN.

Arizona alone has seen one of the highest influxes in population throughout the country, but they’re definitely not alone in the struggle of maintaining the growing clientele. According to a survey done by Freddie Mac, two-thirds of renters in this country can’t currently afford to become a homeowner, this is a 59% increase compared to last years renter statistics. The biggest and simplest solution to this growing problem is acquiring more land to develop properties. The need for property space is one of the leading causes to the decline in everything else within the industry. Agents are attempting to fulfill their clients specific limitations while finding them a proper space to call their own. Clients are demanding large and extravagant additions to be made to their homes that just aren’t necessary, such as large porches, grand foyer entrances, and garage spaces. These additions increase property value, which is currently being viewed as a bad thing due to a lack of clients that can afford those spaces.

“At the end of the day, anywhere there is land to build on today that is appropriate for residential use, I think our municipal leaders and our builders need to come together and allocate some share of that remaining land towards affordable housing and we need to have different requirements” concludes Belfiore.