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US Weekly Unemployment Filings Fall To Lowest Since 1969

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United States applications for unemployment benefits hit the lowest level in over five decades last week as layoff rates remain historically low despite global economic uncertainty. 

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The amount of Americans who applied for unemployment benefits in the week ending on July 18th declined by 22,000 to hit 187,000, the Labor Department reported this week. This marks the lowest number of weekly applications for jobless benefits since 1969, according to data from the Labor Department. 

The weekly filings of unemployment benefits are viewed as a proxy for layoffs and are the closest thing to a real-time indicator of the health of the US job market, according to AP. These recent filings are also well below the 215,000 estimate that was given from data firm FactSet. 

There has been a lot of economic concern in relation to the US military attack on Iran, and while it has been impacted, the US job market has remained relatively stable with historically low layoff rates. 

While everything is relatively stable at the moment, analysts and financial experts have warned that a prolonged war and higher than average energy costs could eventually start to impact the job market, as companies will have to reduce certain costs by lowering the amount of people they employ. 

Carl Weinberd, chief economist at High Frequency Trading, stated that “the economic crisis caused by the energy supply shock is not over yet. But the labor market has yet to show any sign of wear and tear from the surge in oil prices.” 

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The price of a barrel of US crude has increased by nearly 5% on Thursday to over $91, marking the highest level in around six weeks. Gas prices in the US are also remaining above $4 a gallon, on average. 

The government also reported that employers have been pulling back on hiring, and have only added 57,000 jobs to the market. That marks less than 50% from the previous month and is telling that many companies are remaining cautious about adding to their work population based on the current economic state. 

The unemployment rate also dropped to 4.2% from 4.3% in May. It’s also important to note that a lot of the unemployment filing rates are also caused by out-of-work individuals who gave up looking for new jobs and are no longer counted as unemployed. 

Reports indicate that weekly jobless aid applications have remained mainly between 200,000 and 250,000 since the recession that occurred during the pandemic. However, hiring has been slowing within the past two years and especially in 20205 due to President Donald Trump’s tariffs, his administration’s layoffs in the federal workforce, and the after effects of high interest rates. 

The total number of Americans filing for unemployment benefits for the previous week ending in July 11th was down by 2,000 to just under 1.8 million.

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Survey Shows U.S. Consumer Sentiment Near Historic Lows Despite Steady Spending

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Americans’ view of the economy has sunk to near record lows. And once again, the contradiction at the heart of the U.S. recovery is back in focus. The nation’s households say they are worried, yet many are still opening their wallets.

The University of Michigan’s long-running consumer sentiment survey placed its September reading at 55.1, one of the lowest points in records that stretch back to 1952. Since the end of World War II, Americans have reported bleaker readings only a handful of times, typically in moments of profound economic stress, such as the oil shocks of the 1970s, the Great Recession of 2008, or the early months of the 2020 pandemic.

This time, the culprit looks familiar. Inflation has cooled from its peak, but fears of prices climbing again have flared after President Donald Trump announced a new round of tariffs on trucks, pharmaceuticals, and household goods, including furniture. Tariffs ripple quickly through supply chains, raising concerns that another round of price hikes is on the way, just as families had begun to catch their breath.

Households aren’t only worried about grocery bills and rent. They’re watching the labor market, too. “Consumers continue to express frustration over the persistence of high prices, with 44% spontaneously mentioning that high prices are eroding their personal finances, the highest reading in a year,” said Joanne Hsu, the survey’s director.

“Interviews this month highlight the fact that consumers feel pressure both from the prospect of higher inflation as well as the risk of weaker labor markets.”

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Jobs remain plentiful by historical standards, but the momentum is slowing. Unemployment sits at 4.3%, which is low, but no longer at the rock-bottom levels of 2022. People who lose their jobs are taking longer to find new ones. Those warning signs pushed the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates last week, its first reduction since December, in an attempt to cushion the slowdown.

The gloom does not match the cash registers. Government data show consumer spending rose 0.6% in August, or 0.4% after adjusting for inflation. That jump came in the thick of the back-to-school rush, but it’s consistent with a broader pattern. In recent years, Americans have often told pollsters they feel pessimistic, only to proceed and splurge anyway.

In 2022, when inflation hit 40-year highs and sentiment collapsed to its lowest point ever recorded, spending on travel, concerts, and restaurants surged. In 2023, when political gridlock in Washington rattled confidence, the pattern repeated. Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin summed it up on Friday.

“Recent data show consumers resumed spending over the summer, especially those with higher incomes. And why wouldn’t they? Unemployment is still low, nominal wages are still increasing, and asset valuations are near all-time highs.”

That last point is crucial. The U.S. economy is increasingly being powered by the upper tier of earners. High-income households, buoyed by rising paychecks, booming stock portfolios, and strong home values, account for the lion’s share of discretionary spending. By contrast, low- and middle-income families are squeezed hardest by everyday prices and more likely to cut back.

In a statement to CNN, Stephanie Guild, chief investment officer at Robinhood, framed it bluntly.

“It’s the higher-income people in the country who do the majority of the spending, and those are the same people who are more likely to have investments.”

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The stock market is reinforcing that divide. Major U.S. indexes have touched record highs in recent months, lifted by optimism over artificial intelligence, expectations of easier Fed policy, and solid corporate earnings. Even Trump’s tariff announcement, which sparked fears of higher consumer costs, was greeted on Wall Street with a rally strong enough to end a three-day losing streak.

That resilience has a feedback loop. Families who own equities, or have retirement accounts linked to them, report steadier confidence, Hsu noted.

“Sentiment for consumers with larger stock holdings held steady in September, while for those with smaller or no holdings, sentiment decreased.”

Guild added that the psychological comfort shouldn’t be underestimated. “With the market at record highs, despite the last few days, I definitely think it makes people feel comfortable about their savings,” she said.

The U.S. economy finds itself in a peculiar position. On paper, the fundamentals still appear solid: unemployment remains at historically low levels, spending has not collapsed, and corporate earnings are strong. Yet the narrative inside American households is sour, shaped by grocery bills, rent checks, and the daily headlines about tariffs and inflation.

Economists caution against taking sentiment as a crystal ball, as recent history has shown that gloomy surveys don’t always translate to empty shopping carts. But they also warn that if labor market weakness deepens or price increases accelerate, households could shift from complaining about the economy to actually retreating.

For now, the disconnect holds. Americans say they are bracing for the worst, but many are still living like the economy is strong.

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US Job Market Showed Growth In November 

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Job growth in the US surged in November after previously being impacted by hurricanes and various industry strikes. However, unemployment rates also rose, “pointing to an easing labor market that should allow the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates again this month,” according to Lucia Mutikani for Reuters.

According to the employment report from the Labor Department, last month showed solid wage growth. The economy created 56,000 more jobs in September and October than what experts initially estimated. 

“Today’s payroll report reinforces the case for a Fed cut in December, but without inciting any meaningful worries about the labor market,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist at Principal Asset Management.

“Nonfarm payrolls increased by 227,000 jobs last month after rising by an upwardly revised 36,000 in October,” the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics said.

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The healthcare sector saw a 54,000 rise in jobs throughout services, hospitals, nursing, and residential care facilities. 

Leisure and hospitality payrolls increased by 53,000 jobs, and government employment increased by 33,000, according to the reports. 

“Manufacturing payrolls rebounded by 22,000 positions as the end of strikes at Boeing  and another smaller aerospace company boosted transportation equipment jobs by 32,000. Social assistance payrolls increased by 19,000 jobs,” Mutikani wrote. 

In October, Hurricanes Helene and Milton and strikes in the aerospace industry caused a decrease in payrolls. 

In November, around 193,000 individuals left their jobs, pushing the labor force participation rate down from 62.6% to 62.5%.

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Weekly US Jobless Claims Are Declining 

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According to new reports from the US Labor Department, the number of Americans who are filing new applications for unemployment benefits is declining, giving officials hope that the job market may not be deteriorating as drastically as previously believed. 

The recent data from the Labor Department “showed unemployment rolls shrinking to levels last seen in mid-June. It reduces the urgency for the Federal Reserve to deliver a 50 basis points interest rate cut this month,” according to Lucia Mutikani from Reuters. 

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“Economists shrugged off other data showing private employers hired the smallest number of workers in August. Most expect the U.S. central bank to kick off its easing cycle with a quarter-point rate reduction as domestic demand remains solid,” Mutikani wrote.

“A step-down in hiring, which pushed the unemployment rate to near a three-year high of 4.3% in July rattled investors and fanned concerns that a recession was stalking the economy.”

“There are signs of a slowdown in hiring with fewer job openings, but until payroll jobs actually decline there is no recession. At the moment, it does not look like the Fed is behind the curve,” said Christopher Rupkey, chief economist at FWDBONDS.

For the week ending in August 31st, state unemployment benefits dropped by a total of 5,000 to 227,000. This marks the lowest levels since early July. 

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“There was probably some residual seasonality boosting claims earlier in the summer, and that, like last year’s claims, could decline into September absent a more serious worsening in the labor market,” said Abiel Reinhart, an economist at J.P. Morgan.

In the federal government’s “Beige Book” report this week, employment levels are “generally flat to up slightly in recent weeks. A few (Fed) districts reported that firms reduced shifts and hours, left advertised positions unfilled, or reduced headcounts through attrition, though accounts of layoffs remained rare.”

“The number of people receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, a proxy for hiring, decreased 22,000 to a seasonally adjusted 1.838 million during the week ending Aug. 24, the lowest level since mid-June,” the claims report stated.

“Financial markets saw a roughly 41% probability of a half-point rate cut at the Fed’s Sept. 17-18 policy meeting,” according to CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.

“The chances of further rate reductions this year were boosted by another report from the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Statistics showing unit labor costs rose at a much slower pace than initially estimated in the second quarter amid strong worker productivity,” wrote Mutikani.

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Australians Experience 50% Rise In Airfare Travel Costs To Europe 

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According to data collected by travel booking site Kayak, Australians looking to travel to Europe are seeing fares around 50% higher than what they cost last year, despite the fact that there’s also been an increase in available seats this summer and fuel prices improving within the past few months. 

Kayak used data from early January, up until this month, to conclude that the average price for return economy airfare from Australian cities to Europe would be around $2,500. This marks a 46% increase on average airfares for 2022, as well as a 63% increase when compared to pre-pandemic pricing. 

In general, this summer travel season is already gearing up to be increasingly expensive as well as busy for many major destinations around the world, but especially in Europe. 

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David Beirman, an adjunct fellow professor at the University of Technology in Sydney, Australia who also specializes in tourism, stated that this increase, while jarring, isn’t exactly surprising. 

“Airlines for a long time were making next to no money on international flights, especially for economy passengers. Most carriers were still working to financially recover from the steep losses of Covid, even if some such as Qantas have been posting record profits of late. Those two years of lost revenue is what consumers are paying for now,” Beirman explained. 

“Covid was an extreme lesson in what could happen when things go wrong. So they have been forced to be more realistic about their pricing now, as irritating as it is to the traveling public,” he continued. 

“Sadly what has happened since Covid is that travel has gone from being something very democratic that just about anyone earning even a modest salary could afford to being a plaything of the elite or for people paying huge amounts of money just to see loved ones.”

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“They’ve had to recruit staff and pay them much more money than they used to get. Maybe by 2024 or 2025 people will be a bit more choosy, less eager to travel, and prices will come down but at the moment it’s very much a sellers market and airlines are, rightfully or wrongfully, taking advantage of that,” Beirman said.

Simon Elsegood, head of research at the Center for Aviation, said “while fuel prices have come back down substantially [and] we’ve seen a portion of the leisure market move up to premium economy and other classes, it’s not been enough to compensate airlines from lost business travel.”

“Air fares are a sore point because they are so much more expensive than 12 months ago but I don’t feel like people are getting a raw deal. It’s very difficult to price gouge between Europe and Australia because there are so many route options.”

“It’s just the way the market has to be at the moment. Yes, they’re making money now but they also lost billions during the pandemic. They’re not a charity and they have to make sure their shareholders are also taken care of,” he concluded. 

Record-Breaking 4.5 Million US Workers Quit Their Jobs In November 

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According to the US Department of Labor, a record-breaking number of employees quit their jobs in November while the total amount of employment openings continued to drop, the department reported this Tuesday. 

Around 4.53 million Americans resigned from their jobs throughout the month of November, according to the DOL’s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. This marks an 8.9% increase in resignations when compared to October. The data also shows November beating September’s record of resignations, which peaked at 4.36 million. 

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The recent months of Americans resigning has been labelled as the Great Resignation. Workers have been leaving their positions for a multitude of reasons, including not enough pay/benefits, lack of health and safety precautions, and increased mobility in the labor market. Job openings in America currently outnumber the amount of citizens looking for work. 

In October there were around 11.09 million job openings throughout the nation, and around 10.56 million in November. This time last year the job opening rate was around 4.5%, and has since increased to 6.6%. 

“The Great Resignation shows no sign of abating, with quits hitting a new record. The question is why, and the answers are for starkly different reasons,” said Robert Frick, corporate economist at Navy Federal Credit Union. 

“COVID-19 burnout and fear are continuing, but also, many Americans have the confidence to quit given the high level of job openings and rising pay.”

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A separate economic report from the ISM Manufacturing Index showed that manufacturing rates throughout December were slower than initially expected. The index registered a 58.7% rate, 1.3% lower than the 60% expectation. 

The index also showed major decreases in supplier delivery, which fell by 7.3% last month. While inflation in general is running at its highest level in nearly 40 years, the index also showed a shocking decrease in prices; 14.2%.

The employment index within manufacturing, however, has shown a .9% gain in employment, which is a sign that hiring within the sector is remaining relatively strong. 

As Covid cases continue to surge, the healthcare and social assistance industries are experiencing some of the highest levels of resignation, with a 3% rise in November, the highest percentage on record for that sector. 

The Labor Department is expected to release their closely watched nonfarm payroll count for December within the week. Experts in the field are expecting, and hoping, to see a growth of around 422,000 jobs with an unemployment rate of 4.1%.

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Weekly Jobless Claims In US Hit 18-Month Low

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The Labor Department revealed this week that weekly jobless claims have decreased to almost pre-pandemic levels. People on state unemployment have also hit March 2020 levels when the pandemic was initially starting and shutting down multiple businesses.

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Weekly Jobless Claims In The US Much Higher Than Anticipated

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The Department of Labor reported that last-week showed first-time claims for unemployment rose at levels much higher than initially anticipated, especially due to the fact that the economy has been showing signs of recovering after the last year.

According to reports from the Labor Department “first-time claims for the week ended April 3 totaled 744,000, well above the expectation for 694,000 from economists surveyed by Dow Jones. The total represented an increase of 16,000 from the previous week’s upwardly revised 728,000. The four-week moving average edged higher to 723,750.”

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The labor market within the last week, however, has shown signs of recovery after the past year of the pandemic. Nonfarm payrolls in march increased by nearly 916,000 while the unemployment rate fell down to 6%.

This increase in jobs marks the biggest increase in employment in the US since August 2020. Before the pandemic the unemployment rate was at 3.5%, however, so there’s still plenty of work to be done, especially after last week’s unexpected reports.

“Continuing claims provided some good news on the labor front, with the total dropping 16,000 to 3.73 million. That’s the lowest level for continuing claims since March 21, 2020, just after the Covid-19 pandemic hit and companies instituted wholesale layoffs in conjunction with the economic shutdown. Continuing claims run a week behind the headline weekly number,” according to NBC.

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California and New York account for a majority of the increase in employment; California saw a rise of 38,963 last week while New York saw a 15,714 increase. However, those increases were cancelled out by a 13,944 decline in Alabama as well as a 10,502 decline in Ohio.

Economists have reported that filing backlogs could be one of the larger factors that drive claims up throughout the nation, while spikes in Covid-19 cases are also keeping the filings elevated due to a lack of individuals able to work.

Federal Reserve officials claim that despite the recent progress America has experienced, “much more progress is needed on the jobs front before we can consider changing economic policy.” The most recent Federal Open Market Committee meeting cited a better outlook for the US economy in the coming year based on a continued need for an easy policy.

Federal Governor Lael Brainard told the media this week that “the economic outlook has brightened considerably but there are still about 9 million fewer workers than there were before the pandemic. Central bank officials have said they want to see not only full employment but also inclusive gains across income, racial and gender lines. In that sense, we’ve got some distance to go before the outcomes are achieved.”

One Year Since The Covid-19 Pandemic Began And America Is Still Down 10 Million Jobs 

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Nearly one year after the Covid-19 pandemic initially shut down America the nation is still finding itself down by 10 million jobs compared to where we were at this time last year. 745,000 additional Americans have filed for first-time unemployment benefits on a seasonally adjusted basis last week, according to the US Labor Department. 

The number of new claims is up from the previous week, however, it’s slightly less than what economists were expecting for the month of March. 436,696 workers also applied for Pandemic Unemployment benefits which are mainly available for gig workers or self-employed individuals. 

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First-time jobless claims in total equated to about 1.2 million without seasonal adjustments for last week. Continued benefit claims, which specifically count applicants that submitted their forms for at least two weeks in a row or more, reached 4.2 million in the last week of February, which is slightly smaller when compared to the week prior. 

At this point last year the labor crisis was just beginning with about 6.9 million Americans applying for first-time unemployment, and millions of jobs disappearing in general. While millions of new jobs have been created within the past year and many Americans were able to get back to work, the nation is still struggling to rebuild the economy.

The American Department of Labor employment report cited “fewer jobs added in February than expected: 117,000 versus the 177,000 forecast. Even though the private sector report and the government’s official figures, which are due Friday at 8:30 am ET, aren’t correlated, it’s not a great sign.”

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Economists estimate that about 182,000 new jobs were added to the US market in February, which is up 49,000 from the previous month. When compared to February 2020, however, the nation is still down about 9.7 million jobs; at that point in time the unemployment rate for America was actually at a 50-year low of 3.5%.

“The expectations are widely different, ranging from a 100,000 jobs lost to 500,000 jobs gained. We expect the US jobs recovery to show some encouraging progress in February,” said Lydia Boussour, lead US economist at Oxford Economics.

The rollout of Covid-19 vaccines and the reopening of the Paycheck Protection Program for small businesses will hopefully help assist the nation in creating new jobs. The winter storms that have been impacting the country, however, are also influencing how many new jobs are created. The unemployment rate is currently projected to remain at 6.3% for now as well, however, the Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell claimed last week that the actual unemployment rate is likely closer to 10%.

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Weekly Jobless Claims Remain Stagnant As Hiring Slows Down In America 

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Throughout this past week in America there have been indicators that the labor market is continuing to weaken, and new jobs aren’t being created at a rate they once were. The pandemic obviously has everything to do with this, however, despite the decline in hiring throughout the nation, first-time filings for unemployment remained relatively stagnant in the end of 2020. 

This is surprising because in terms of the pandemic and economy, the US has entered into its worst phase so far; and that began back in November. First-time filings have been on a steady increase throughout the fall, but by the end of last week, weekly claims totaled 787,000. The Labor Department and Dow Jones both estimated that 815,000 filings would’ve been the total based on the trends that existed at the end of the year. 

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The report showed that compared to the week prior the amount of filings decreased by 3,000 for first-time filings, and 126,000 for continued claims. Now, the total amount of individuals receiving continuous claims is around 5.07 million and those receiving benefits from all government assisted programs declined by 420,000 to 19.2 million. 

This week ADP reported that private contracts and workers accounted for 123,000 job losses in December, which is the first time that the sector of the labor market has seen such a substantial decline in employment. Ian Shepherdson, a chief economist, recently spoke with the media about this predictable yet devastating consistency in unemployment. 

“A combination of Covid fear and state-mandated restrictions on activity in the services sector is squeezing businesses, and no real relief is likely until a sustained decline in pressure on hospitals emerges.”

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The Labor Department is currently projected to report that the US economy has added at least 50,000 jobs to the labor force in America at the end of 2020. However, the unemployment rate has continued to increase and is now at 6.8%, according to estimates from Dow Jones. 

While the labor market continues to remain in deep distress the average for continued unemployment claims has oddly decreased; last week it fell down to 818,750, for comparison this time last year the amount of continued claims totaled 219,750. 

Illinois is the state responsible for the biggest drop in claims with a decline of 62,765. Multiple states showed that they gained more than 10,000 claims in the last week; including Colorado, Georgia, Kansas, Virginia, and Texas. 

The fourth quarter is expected to show a considerable growth in the amount of new hires that occurred. This is also based on current investment and consumer spending data. The Atlanta Federal Reserve’s GDPNow tracker of activity is predicting a 8.9% gain for “domestic product” and employment.