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Major Corporations Stay Silent as Supreme Court Weighs Trump’s Tariffs

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America’s largest companies have gone quiet as one of the most consequential economic showdowns of the decade hits the Supreme Court. The battle over Donald Trump’s global tariffs isn’t being led by Wall Street or Silicon Valley. It’s being waged by small businesses, the kind that can’t afford to wait out the uncertainty or absorb the hit of another presidential trade gambit.

The Supreme Court will hear arguments on Wednesday on whether Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs and his unilateral duties on goods from China, Mexico, and Canada violate presidential authority.

In their case, businesses like a family-run toymaker from Illinois, a wine importer from New York, and a scattering of other modest firms say they have been suffocating under unpredictable import duties. Victor Owen Schwartz, founder of the wine and spirits importer V.O.S. Selections, told CNN he felt compelled to speak up.

“I was shocked that those with much more power and money did not step up. So when I was afforded the opportunity to speak for small American businesses, I took it.”

President Trump invoked a 1970s emergency statute, the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA), to reshape global trade in the name of tackling trade imbalances and fentanyl trafficking. While the law allows a president to “regulate importation” in emergencies, it never explicitly mentions tariffs, and that omission is now at the heart of the fight.

The plaintiffs argue the tariffs have driven up costs and created crippling uncertainty. “It’s an asphyxiating tax,” said Rick Woldenberg, CEO of Learning Resources, one of the lead plaintiffs.

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“I’m not targeting Mr. Trump because I’m not a politician. I’m a taxpayer who’s been hit with an unlawful tax.”

Despite the far reach of the case, America’s corporate heavyweights are mostly staying out of it. That silence, experts say, likely stems from a fear of political retaliation.

“The federal government has immense leverage and immense power and can upend your business with a tweet or a tax investigation,” said Georgetown Law professor Gregory Shaffer.

“I think there’s a sense that companies wanted to be more careful with this administration.”

It wouldn’t have been the first time big business has weighed in on controversial legal fights. In recent years, dozens of corporations, including Apple, Walmart, General Electric, and Intel, have filed friend-of-the-court briefs on social or economic issues. But this time, there’s no such chorus.

“Anyone who wants to speak out against this is going to be in the pain cave,” said Cassie Abel, founder and CEO of women’s outdoor brand Wild Rye. Abel, who joined an amicus brief opposing the tariffs, said the fear of blowback from Trump’s camp is real, especially after large retailers faced his public ire for linking tariff costs to price hikes.

Trump’s legal team insists the IEEPA gives him wide latitude to impose tariffs, even if the term isn’t spelled out. The administration’s top appellate lawyer, Solicitor General D. John Sauer, warned that striking down the tariffs could have “catastrophic consequences” for the economy.

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“Plaintiffs would unwind trade arrangements worth trillions of dollars, as President Trump has leveraged the IEEPA tariffs into negotiated framework deals with major trading partners—including the European Union, the United Kingdom, Japan, South Korea, and now China—that address underlying causes of the declared emergencies.”

Some major companies have found quieter ways to protect themselves by securing exemptions or rerouting supply chains to minimize damage. Others, like Apple and Home Depot, have not commented on why they’ve stayed on the sidelines this time.

Trade lawyer Gregory Husisian said many large corporations are calculating whether joining the case would add anything new to the arguments already made by smaller players. If you don’t have a fresh legal angle, he said, “What do you really gain by being the person who sticks your neck out?”

The Chamber of Commerce and several other industry groups have broken ranks to file briefs urging the court to undo the tariffs. They’re joined by nearly three dozen former federal judges, national security officials, and smaller trade groups who say the emergency powers law was never meant to let a president unilaterally reshape global trade.

For the plaintiffs, the case has become symbolic, as small businesses face off not just against Washington but also against the silence of their larger counterparts.

Meanwhile, Trump has avoided directly attacking the companies behind the lawsuit, perhaps wary of alienating the small-business community, which enjoys bipartisan sympathy. Whether that restraint lasts may depend on how the court rules.

tiktok

TikTok To Remain Operational In The US After Deal With China Is Reached 

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The Trump administration announced this week that a deal has officially been reached with China to keep TikTok operational in the United States, after a yearlong effort that began back when Trump was in office for his first term, CNN reports. 

US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in Madrid this week that a framework agreement has been reached, and Trump is set to speak with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on Friday in order to finalize the deal. 

“President Trump played a role in this, we had a call with him last night, we had specific guidance from him and we shared it with our Chinese counterparts. Without his leadership and the leverage he provides, we would not have been able to include the deal today,” Bessent said.

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The Trump administration did not specifically name the US-backed buyer, but it’s expected to be the Oracle executive chairman Larry Ellison. Back in January, Trump stated that he would “champion” Ellison in buying TikTok’s US assets. 

Both Chinese and US diplomats have been holding meetings in Spain this week to hold trade discussions and talk about other matters. Bessent is leading the latest rounds of talks, and emphasized how TikTok was one of the major subjects being addressed. 

“We were very focused on TikTok and making sure that it was a deal that is fair for the Chinese and completely respects US national security concerns, and that’s the deal we reached,” said US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer.

“Of course, we want to ensure that the Chinese have a fair, invested environment in the United States, but always that US national security comes first.”

China’s top trade negotiator and vice minister of commerce, Li Chenggang, stated that the US and China held “candid and in-depth exchanges,” and have reached a “basic framework consensus” in order to keep TikTok operational in America. 

The framework includes “resolving TikTok-related issues through cooperation, reducing investment barriers, and promoting-relevant economic and trade cooperation,” Li told the media in Madrid. 

Deputy director of China’s Cyberspace Administration, Wang Jingtao, stated that the deal could also include methods that would ensure entrusted operation of TikTok’s US user data and intellectual property rights, David Goldman of CNN reports. 

Throughout the year, Trump has extended a self-imposed deadline to reach a deal with China so that ByteDance, TikTok’s parent company, would sell at least part of the US’s TikTok business to an American-backed owner. 

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On January 18th, TikTok briefly shut down in the US, but a day before Trump took office, January 19th, the president said he would sign an executive action to ensure US companies wouldn’t be punished for having TikTok on their app stores or servers. 

Once the order was signed on January 20th, the ban on TikTok in the US was delayed for 75 days. The deadline was extended again in June to September 17th, and was expected to be extended again. 

Many investment groups throughout the US have expressed their interest in purchasing TikTok throughout the year, including former LA Dodgers owner Frank McCourt and famous “Shark Tank” investor Kevin O’Leary. 

Despite the interest, TikTok in general is likely to cost in the tens of billions, which is why industry analysts are reporting someone like Ellison is more likely to lead the charge for purchasing, as he would lead a group of investors. Additionally, Oracle also has an established relationship with TikTok. 

In 2020, Oracle began hosting TikTok’s US data, and during Trump’s first administration, the company and social media platform briefly reached a deal of acquisition, but it was eventually blocked. 

CNN reported that US officials said a meeting between Trump and Xi wouldn’t be happening if there wasn’t a TikTok deal in place. The agreement would also make it more likely that both leaders will sit down in October when Trump visits Asia, the officials said. 

Regarding the deal, Trump posted online: “The big Trade Meeting in Europe between The United States of America, and China, has gone VERY WELL! It will be concluded shortly.”

“A deal was also reached on a ‘certain’ company that young people in our Country very much wanted to save. They will be very happy! I will be speaking to President Xi on Friday.”

tariffs

Conservative Think Tank Finds Major Error in White House Tariff Formula

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A recent tariff formula implemented by the White House is fundamentally flawed due to an incorrect calculation, resulting in tariffs roughly four times higher than intended, according to a recent analysis.

Economists from the American Enterprise Institute (AEI), a conservative think tank, identified a critical error in how the administration assessed price changes resulting from tariffs. The White House incorrectly applied retail price elasticity—the consumer-facing price—instead of import price elasticity, which represents the cost U.S. companies pay when purchasing goods from foreign suppliers. AEI determined the administration used an elasticity rate of 0.25, whereas the correct elasticity, reflecting import prices, should have been 0.945.

“Even if one were to take the Trump Administration’s tariff formula seriously, it makes an error that inflates the tariffs assumed to be levied by foreign countries four-fold. As a result, the ‘reciprocal’ tariffs imposed by President Trump are highly inflated as well.”

Stan Veuger, one of the AEI fellows involved in the analysis, described the error as amateurish for such impactful policy decisions. “It’s pretty bush league,” he remarked in an interview with Fortune. “For such a big policy, you’d expect a much higher level of professionalism.”

Veuger and coauthor Kevin Corinth criticized the flawed formula but urged accuracy, stating that even if the administration insists on using questionable methodology, precise calculations should be fundamental.

“Now, our view is that the formula the administration relied on has no foundation in either economic theory or trade law. But if we are going to pretend that it is a sound basis for U.S. trade policy, we should at least be allowed to expect that the relevant White House officials do their calculations carefully.”

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AEI economist Derek Scissors suggested on Monday on CNBC the miscalculations were not mere mistakes but deliberate manipulations to inflate tariffs according to President Trump’s preferences.

“This whole thing was rigged. It was a manipulated way to get very high tariffs because President Trump wanted to announce very high tariffs.”

The flawed methodology has already negatively impacted financial markets worldwide. Following President Trump’s announcement of the new tariffs, U.S. markets, including the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and NASDAQ Composite, saw significant declines. Asian markets, particularly in Japan and Hong Kong, also faced sharp drops amid escalating trade tensions. European markets similarly suffered notable losses, declining approximately 4.5% after a challenging week.

The initial White House formula already faced criticism due to its simplistic approach, which involved dividing America’s trade deficit with a country by that country’s total exports to the U.S., then halving the result. Corinth and Veuger highlighted that such a method ignores essential market realities and “does not make economic sense.”

“The trade deficit with a given country is not determined only by tariffs and non-tariff trade barriers, but also by international capital flows, supply chains, comparative advantage, geography, etc.”

These reciprocal tariffs, initially promoted as carefully calculated responses to foreign trade barriers taking a multitude of factors into account, originated from President Trump’s insistence on the formula, according to the Washington Post.

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Veuger attributes the policy primarily to Trump’s longstanding beliefs rather than sound economic reasoning.

“What’s driving the policy is that since the 1980s, Trump has been a protectionist, and he thinks trade deficits are losses and trade surpluses are profits. He just likes tariffs. Then, you can backfill them with various, a little more sophisticated, intellectualized rationalizations. But that’s what it is—it’s rationalization.”

In response, the White House defended its methodology by claiming retail prices are more relevant since they directly influence consumer decisions. A spokesperson even argued that tariff rates should have been higher, not lower.

However, Corinth and Veuger countered by citing research by Harvard Business School professor Alberto Cavallo, which the administration referenced in their own documentation. Cavallo clarified on social media last week that his research indicated an elasticity rate closer to 1, not the 0.25 used by the White House, underscoring the severity of the administration’s error.

“It is not entirely clear how they use our findings. Based on our research, the elasticity of import prices with respect to tariffs is closer to 1. If that figure were used instead of 0.25, the implied reciprocal tariffs would come out about four times smaller.”

Corinth and Veuger suggested that correcting this error would dramatically reduce tariff rates, benefiting global trade and potentially boosting economic activity. For instance, Cambodia’s tariff rate would decrease from 49% to approximately 13%, while Vietnam’s would fall from 46% to around 12.2%. Most nations affected by the White House’s policy would consequently face a significantly lower minimum tariff rate of 10%.

“Hopefully, they will correct their mistake soon: the resulting trade liberalization would provide a much-needed boost to the economy and may yet help us stave off a recession.”

mavericks

Kyrie Irving Traded To The Dallas Mavericks

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This past Sunday, The Brooklyn Nets and Dallas Mavericks made the major trade of Kyrie Irving, who’s now heading to Dallas.

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Impeachment 2

Trump’s Impeachment Looks at President Trump’s View on Friendship

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Next week will see President Donald Trump go on trial to defend the accusation that he offered $400 million in military aid to the Ukraine if they gave him information he could use on his political enemies.

And although it is only Trump’s “deal” with the Ukraine that is on trial, it seems that a new story regarding his world view is appearing in the media, making America’s strong relationships with its allies seemingly being based on how much money he can get from them, such as larger subsidies for US troops based in locations including South Korea.

Trump had also bragged about the fact that Saudi Arabia had placed $1 billion into a US bank account in an attempt to gain a detachment of US troops – a claim that has been declared untrue.

And while it seems that Trump is only out to get as much money as he can from his new found “friends,” he is also restricting them too. He has threatened European allies with 25% auto tariffs if they did not enforce a dispute mechanism against Iran with regards to the nuclear deal. He also threatened to take action against Iraq that would “make Iranian sanctions look somewhat tame” if the country evicted US troops from the country, as is their sovereign right.

This came alongside the news that Baghdad had been warned by the US that its central bank’s account in New York could be frozen, which was seen as a clear attack to destroy their economy.

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It is actions like these that make many think that if this is the way America treats its friends, they may end up lonely soon. It has also been noted that by having a foreign policy purely designed to increase the country’s wealth goes against the United States’ mission to make the world safer for democracy.

As is always the case, Trump has his supporters who cannot see anything wrong with what he is doing. Trump’s announcement that the world has been “ripping off” America has been seen by many as exaggerations, however many others agree with him saying that creating deals with other countries is the way America has always worked.

Several text messages have been released by the House Intelligence Committee and have thrown a new name into the Ukraine issue. Robert F. Hyde – Connecticut’s congressional candidate – had sent texts where he seemed infuriated with then-Ambassador Marie Yovanovitch. Texting Lev Parnas, an associate of Rudy Giuliani, Hyde said, “she had visitors.” Before adding “Hey broski tell me what we are doing what’s the next step.”

In retaliation to the messages being released Hyde’s Twitter account for his election campaign appeared to renounce Parnas as “some dweeb we were playing with” while Adam Schiff, House Intel leader was dismissed as a “desperate turd.”

Yet despite Trump’s dubious ways of keeping his friends happy he seems keen to be rebuilding his relationship with China.

Following on from the recent trade war with China, which saw many of China’s technology giants including Huawei being banned in the country as well as TikTok being banned from all US military, it seems that the two countries have been working towards a deal that should keep both countries happy.

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Trump’s trade deal with China was reported during the week and if Trump’s assurances that President Xi was watching on TV in Beijing is to be believed, the Chinese President would have been shocked with what he heard in the 40 minute tirade Trump delivered to Chinese leaders, CEOs, cabinet members and lawmakers as well as the world’s media. Trump was keen to announce that the impeachment is a “hoax,” US Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer “tosses and turns” and is unable to get a good night’s sleep as well as other facts that many were not expecting to hear.

He continued to thank President Xi who is “a very, very good friend of mine” before explaining that “we’re representing different countries. He’s representing China, I’m representing the US, but we’ve developed an incredible relationship.”

Following on from Trump’s fallout with Iran many countries in the Gulf and Europe fear retaliation. The President’s unpredictable behavior alongside his habit of off-the-cuff speeches has left many governments concerned that although the American President will react when American lives are at stake, he may not be so supportive if regional interests are under attack or even merely threatened.

A great example is Trump’s reluctance to react when Iran allegedly attacked vital Saudi oil facilities last year. Although America has declared that one of its policy priorities is to protect Saudi Arabia there clearly are conditions. Ilan Goldenberg from the Center for a New American Security is an expert on Middle East issues and said there are two sides to these “battles.”

“On the one hand, they are happy that Trump is willing to sanction and pressure and take Iran down a notch.” However it appears that “they are nervous that he is unsteady and goes too far… No one really knows what Donald Trump will do”

Whatever Trump does decide to do, it is unclear whether being his friend is beneficial to you or not.

USA China Trade War 2

Promising Progress Made In US-China Trade War Negotiations

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A new easing of trade tariffs between the US and China has sparked fresh hope that an end to the trade war between the countries could now be in sight.

Since Donald Trump was elected President, discussions with China’s Xi Jinping have remained tense. However, new revelations that some tariffs are to be rolled back has led analysts to predict real potential for growth in the coming months.

The stock market has also responded enthusiastically, and there has also been unprecedented steps by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) to increase their global growth forecasts, should a deal to ease trade tensions come to fruition.

Although the details are yet to be finalised, it has been revealed that the deal will reintroduce the movement of US agricultural goods to China alongside a reduction in tariffs on Chinese imports entering the US. There are also suggestions that US poultry imports could also start flowing back into China.

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The first phase of the deal relies on the US rolling back tariffs on over $350bn of Chinese imports. If this is achieved, Xi Jinping will make the historic journey to the US to sign a partial trade deal with Donald Trump. Such progress is unprecedented and there has been excitement from investors, leading to a surge in stock markets and an all-time weekly high for the S&P 500.

Less than six months ago, further tensions were added as China announced new tariffs on $60bn of US imports, after warnings from Donald Trump against adding further fuel to the fire were ignored. Currently, China’s tariffs affect US imports of soybeans, beef, pork seafood, vegetables, liquefied natural gas, whiskey and ethanol. They range between 5% to 25%. The US currently levies a 15% duty on a range of Chinese imports, from meat through to musical instruments. According to Wikipedia, in 2018, over 1,300 categories of Chinese imports were listed for tariffs, including aircraft parts, batteries, flat-panel televisions, medical devices, satellites, and various weapons. In September, it was announced that China has implemented a 5% levy on US crude oil, the first time fuel had been affected by the ongoing trade battle.

Trump has long believed that China has been operating unfair trade practices which have significantly disadvantaged the US economy. He also accused them of intellectual property theft. The objective of the tariffs was to help boost sales to US companies by making imports more expensive. As overseas imports can often be much cheaper to produce, consumers have increasingly shifted towards the cheaper options, even if it takes a little longer for them to arrive. By focusing on making US products and companies more attractive to consumers, he hoped to give the economy a much needed boost.

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Unfortunately, this objective has not been easy to achieve, nor has it been supported by a wide range of industry experts. The reality is that the ongoing trade war is continuing to not only impact politics but wider businesses and consumers too. And whilst the intention may have been to encourage more sales towards American businesses, the tariffs could in fact have the opposite effect and prevent those same businesses from expanding their operations overseas to lucrative international markets.

With Singles Day fast approaching, this is likely to be the next major event impacted by the ongoing trade war. Similar to Black Friday in the US, Singles Day is a huge sale event which takes place on the Alibaba shopping platform. Most popular with young Chinese people, the event takes place on November 11th, chosen because the number 1 is thought to closely resemble a single person alone. Also known as ‘Guanggun Jie’, analysts have suggested that the ongoing trade tensions between the US and China could affect sales of US products on Singles Day, mainly driven by the loyalty of Chinese consumers, who could actively avoid purchasing products from US companies in retaliation for the way China has been treated.

This viewpoint is reflected in the findings of a recent survey by AlixPartners has revealed that 70% of respondents felt the trade war was influencing their purchasing decisions. Interestingly, over 50% stated that their national loyalty was preventing them from purchasing American brands, suggesting that these brands could see sales adversely affected on Singles Day due to the trade war struggles.

Although the future is still somewhat uncertain, the potential olive branches which are being presented by both parties are being taken as a positive sign that we could be entering a new phase of arrangements between China and the US. Any positive steps towards a renewed deal could not only help to reignite the flow of products between the two countries, but help to stabilize the stock market and provide an optimism across the wider global economy too.

Zebras in Nairobi

How Nairobi Became One Of The Fastest Growing Cities In The World

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Nairobi is the capital of Kenya, and in regards to cities, it’s relatively new. The city has only been officially recognized since 1954 (CNN) but ever since its initial development it has turned itself into one of the fastest growing metropolitan areas in the world. Kenya itself is around two times the size of the state of Nevada, making it one of the most diverse countries in regard to landscape. In Nairobi specifically, residents living in the city are still in close proximity to wildlife, as the city is positioned in between Eastern African cities Somalia and Tanzania, two safari saturated areas. Residents can literally go outside and feel like they’re living in a safari forest urban hybrid, which is one of the reasons it’s becoming one of the fastest cities in the world. 

“Despite its youth, Nairobi’s growth rate has been one of the highest of any African city, with major real estate projects and skyscrapers regularly popping up on the skyline. There’s a lot of entrepreneurship going on here. Everybody is busy creating a life. I come from Mombasa. When I come to Nairobi, I find myself in a different landscape. Here people are moving fast, and people want to get things done. Also, the vibrancy of the city, wharf and business and tourism and hospitality, every part of Nairobi is fast,”  says Najib Balala, Kenya’s minister of tourism.

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As stated by Balala, Nairobi has become one of the most influential cities in Africa, it not only holds a slew of international headquarters for various companies and organizations, but also holds the most amount of retail locations/malls in Kenya as a whole, which to remind you is TWO TIMES the size of Nevada. That’s a lot of retail for one city. According to CNN Travel, the cities population has doubled within the past thirty years. It’s quick and timely growth as a metropolitan hub can be traced back to the arrival of railroads in Africa back in 1895, before the city was even officially recognized. 

According to the BBC, in 1895 the British were focused on building railroads from Mombasa, a city on Kenya’s coast, to Uganda for trading purposes. When they got to the area that is now Nairobi, the location was elevated so high above sea level that construction made it a stopover point on the track due to its vast availability of food and water resources. Once this stopover point was created, the entire area quickly developed to keep up with the high demand of trading and business. On the entirety of the railroad track, Nairobi became the first, and at the time only, place that was developing industrialized buildings, every other stop on the tracks was just landscapes of wildlife and forest land. 

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Fast forward to today, Nairobi’s head start at industrialized development has now resulted in the city becoming not only Kenya’s capital, but the safari capital of the entire continent of Africa. This title was given to the city based on the beautiful National park that exists there. According to CNN, the park is 52 square miles and home to over 400 different types of wild birds as well as other safari wildlife such as leopards, lions, tigers, rhinos, etc. The best part? While residents get to experience the beauty that is Africa’s natural wildlife, they also witness a beautiful city landscape as their background. The ability for Nairobi to maintain a healthy contrast of the city and the natural world, is what makes it such an advanced civilization overall. 

“The greenery and the ecosystem support Nairobi as a healthy city. Look at the freshness of this weather! We say that half the land of Nairobi is Nairobi National Park. The other land is Karura Forest. Nature is the heartbeat of Nairobi and its wildlife has helped to attract travelers to Kenya for many years,” Balala said to CNN Travel.

USA China Trade War 2

U.S. and China Discuss Rolling Back Tariffs

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President Trump has invoked a trade war between the U.S. and China, resulting in potential economic damage to both countries. After Trump imposed tariffs on goods imported from China, China retaliated in kind, driving up the prices of consumer goods. Now, the two countries have agreed in an initial trade deal to roll back some of the tariffs each country has opposed on the other, pending finalization of their agreement. This development represents a reversal of the Trump administration’s position on tariffs, which they instituted in the first place, forcing China to retaliate. If the deal goes through, the price of consumer goods could decrease, boosting an economy which by traditional measures is already quite healthy.

Though Trump has canceled a planned tariff increase, he has continued to threaten Beijing with additional tariffs if they don’t comply with America’s terms. The battle between Trump and Xi Jinping has lasted for 19 months so far, and has caused pain for businesses, consumers, and investors in both countries. Following this news, stocks soared, as investors anticipate an end to the protracted and arguably unnecessary trade dispute. According to Gao Feng, a spokesman for China’s Commerce Ministry, the two countries have discussed resolving their differences over the past two sides, and have agreed to cancel tariffs by stages. However, a timeline has not yet been publicly established.

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As the reality of a deal between the two countries becomes increasingly likely, markets have reacted with optimism, as the S&P 500 rose to more than 3,090, approaching a record closing high. The companies most positively affected by the news are ones that have close ties to Chinese manufacturers and retailers. Despite the positive reaction in the markets, however, other sectors of the economy continue to struggle. In particular, the trade war with China has negatively impacted farm belt states like Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska, where economic growth has slowed considerably. Though the Trump administration claims that Americans do not experience the effects of tariffs, businesses and farmers disagree.

This is not the first time that the United States and China seemed close to reaching a deal to end the trade war.

As a result of Trump’s presidency, American tariffs now apply to more than two-thirds of imports from China, whereas Chinese tariffs affect 58 percent of their imported goods from America. Tariffs are paid by consumers in the countries imposing the tariffs, making the trade war destructive on both sides, leading economists to issue warnings about the long-term impacts of ongoing tariffs. The imposition of tariffs on Chinese imports has long been considered a bad idea by experts, who are now vindicated by the Trump administration’s reversal of policy under significant public pressure.

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Issues unrelated to tariffs factor into the negotiations. American officials want China to take more aggressive action on protecting American intellectual property rights, for instance and contend that the ultimate decision is up to Trump. Additionally, the United States wants China to encourage more foreign investment and purchase more goods and services from abroad. This preliminary agreement suggests that China will be willing to make these concessions, but the final details have yet to be ironed out.

This is not the first time that the United States and China seemed close to reaching a deal to end the trade war. In May, the two countries agreed upon a resolution to end the trade war, which included concessions from China to change some of their business and legal practices. President Jinping even gave a speech celebrating the achievement. However, when a draft agreement was sense to the United States, significant changes had been made to the plan, leading Trump to accuse Beijing of reneging on its commitments. The changes to the draft agreement, which included the removal of promises to change domestic laws, were thought to have been personally made by Jinping himself. Only time will tell whether this new agreement suffers the same fate. 

Chess

Britain and the E.U. Reach Tentative Brexit Deal

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On Thursday, the European Union and Britain announced that they had reached an agreement for Brexit, just two weeks in advance of the October 31st deadline for departing the organization. Britain’s decision to withdraw from the multi-country alliance, the result of a 2016 referendum in which a narrow majority of British citizens voted to leave, has plunged the country into several years of chaos and intragovernmental conflict, as various parties within the country’s Parliament argued vehemently about how to conduct the extraordinarily complicated process of withdrawal. Tensions have only continued to escalate within the country’s government since they promised to implement the results of the referendum, eventually leading to the election of the highly controversial Boris Johnson to Prime Minister, who campaigned on a promise to “get Brexit done,” no matter what. 

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While all possible scenarios for Brexit are forecasted to have a strongly negative effect on the European economy, with the country’s decision to leave having already led to an economic downturn, the no-deal Brexit scenario is widely considered the worst possible outcome. As such, Johnson’s pledge to leave the EU by October 31st, with or without a deal, has raised alarms within the government and the passing of legislation requiring the Prime Minister to reach an agreement with the EU before leaving. With today’s news, a major hurdle for Boris Johnson has been overcome, though the deal is not official until it passes a vote in Parliament. As previous proposed deals have failed in spectacular fashion to receive a necessary majority vote from members of Parliament, leading to the resignation of then-Prime Minister Theresa May, the future of Brexit is by no means certain.

That being said, the new deal seeks to account for many of the complaints that members of Parliament had about Theresa May’s deal which led to its failure to get through Parliament. Under the revised deal, Northern Ireland will be a part of the U.K. customs territory, instead of being in a separate customs area from the rest of the country, which lawmakers cited as a reason for rejecting the previous deal. The new deal gives a degree of “democratic consent” to Northern Ireland, a part of the U.K. that voted overwhelmingly to stay in the EU, as the Northern Ireland assembly will be called to vote on whether to continue this arrangement in the future. 

As the potentially disastrous economic consequences of Brexit become more immediate, however, some U.K. lawmakers are instead calling for a second referendum to hopefully undo the decision to leave the E.U. The Labour party, which opposes the Conservative party led by Johnson, is expected to attempt to force another referendum, under the reasoning that having witnessed several years of governmental chaos has caused a majority of the country to favor staying in the European Union. Public opinion polling has shown that a plurality of U.K. citizens believe, in hindsight, that the decision to leave the E.U. was a mistake, and a second referendum could offer these citizens an opportunity to undo the chaotic results of the previous vote. 

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However, another referendum is unlikely to be conducted before a Parliament vote on whether to accept Johnson’s deal, which is due to be held on Saturday. Though it is difficult to predict the results of Saturday’s vote, members of the opposition party have already publicly criticized the new deal, calling it “a far worse deal than Theresa May’s deal” and raising concerns about its impact on workers’ rights, environmental standards and consumer protection. The U.K.’s membership in the E.U. has long been deeply integrated into the country’s system of government, and as such, concerns about withdrawal apply not only to the European economy but to the impact it could have on the rights and wellbeing of British citizens.